2026 Q4 Crisis Checklist · Deep-Risk-OPP

PUBLIC · PRE-REGISTERED · 2026 Q4

signals that tell you whether this is a top — or just a repricing.

Score it yourself. Re-score in December. No hindsight, no moving the goalposts.

FalsifiableFree PDFUpdated 2026-10-17

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What this is

A 10-item checklist for the 2026 Q4 macro regime: valuation, leverage, policy, and capital flows. Each item is scored ● / ◐ / ○ / ?. We don't sum the score; we look for clusters.

This is not a prediction. It is a pre-registered way to be wrong in public — and to learn from it.

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The 10 items

#	Question	Score	Evidence / gap
1	价格相对传统指标偏高	◐	标普距历史高点 <1%；CAPE 未取数
2	预期在外推	◐	AI 资本开支叙事；长期盈利预期未量化
3	情绪普遍看涨	?	缺 AAII / IPO / 基金发行数据
4	新手 / 外行买家入场	?	缺散户占比 / 新开户数据
5	债务 / GDP > 名义 GDP	◐	赤字约 $2T；债务 / GDP 未计算
6	新借款用于还本付息	?	缺利息支出 / 偿债率序列
7	杠杆融资买入	?	缺保证金债务 / 私募信贷数据
8	政策收紧 / 实际利率高位	●	10Y 5.10%；10Y 实际 ~2.9%
9	期限 / 安全溢价上升	●	长端定价辩论；“安全溢价可能消失”
10	储备 / 资本流动转向	●	COFER 美元 71.2%→56.7%；央行购金

●=1 · ◐=0.5 · ○=0 · ?=缺数据。不求和；看簇。

估值 / 叙事

1.0–1.5 / 4
两项缺数据；暂不占优

杠杆 / 债务

0.5 / 3
两项缺数据；暂不占优

政策 / 资金

3 / 3 · 占优
顶部后的重定价，不是全面泡沫

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How to use it

Score first, read later. Write your own score before reading the evidence.
Look for clusters, not totals. One signal is noise; three in the same cluster is a regime.
Re-score in December. Mark: data error / judgment error / regime actually changed.
Do not change the machine. This checklist sits beside the card; it does not override it.

Latest live card: today's GOR card · Public track record: track-record.